Robin Hanson

Robin Dale Hanson, born on August 28, 1959, is an influential economist and the Chief Scientist at Consensus Point, a company specializing in prediction markets. He is also an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. Hanson is renowned for his pioneering work in the field of prediction markets and has contributed significantly to the development of market scoring rules, particularly the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), which is utilized by platforms like Consensus Point.12

Education and Early Career

Hanson earned a Bachelor of Science in physics from the University of California, Irvine in 1981, followed by a Master of Science in physics and a Master of Arts in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago in 1984. He completed his PhD in social science at Caltech in 1997, focusing on political information and decision-making.123

Before his academic career, Hanson worked in various research roles, including at Lockheed and NASA, where he explored artificial intelligence and Bayesian statistics. He initiated the first corporate prediction market at Xanadu in 1990, showcasing his early interest in using market mechanisms for forecasting.34

Contributions and Ideas

Hanson's research encompasses a wide range of topics, including signaling theory and the implications of emerging technologies. He has authored influential books such as The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain, which delve into the social and economic impacts of future technologies and the hidden motives behind human behavior, respectively.56

He is also known for proposing the concept of "futarchy," a governance model where policies are determined based on prediction markets, aiming to align incentives with accurate forecasting.12 His work has sparked discussions and debates within the academic community and beyond, often challenging conventional economic theories and practices.45

Personal Life

Hanson is married to Peggy Jackson, a hospice social worker, and they have two children. He has publicly expressed his intention to undergo cryonic preservation after death, reflecting his interest in the future of human life and technology.12