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Arjun Sethi
Global Investments, Venture Capital, Occasional Commentary
Arjun Sethi is a seasoned entrepreneur, executive, and investor with a diverse range of experiences in the tech industry. He has made his mark as the Founder of his own startup in addition to serving in various executive positions at Yahoo and 6waves, cementing his expertise in product management and mobile growth. As an Investor at Flipside Crypto, Terraform Labs, and Tribe Capital, he has honed his skills in venture capital and has invested in a variety of innovative startups. Sethi is passionate about supporting emerging technologies and has served on the board of many prominent tech companies such as Kraken Digital Asset Exchange, Docker, MetaMap, and more. Sethi is an Economics graduate from Boston College and holds BA and BS degrees in History and Math from the University of Maryland College Park.
Highlights
Lots of respect for @paulg. I addition I’m not a fan of the tariff plan and execution. I don’t believe it’s good for America. However the chart claiming tariffs made import prices jump 4% and domestic goods 2.6% looks dramatic, but it doesn’t hold up once you look at real data.
From Jan 2024 to Sep 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows: • Import prices ex-fuel up only 1.8% • Domestic producer prices up 0.9% • Core goods CPI roughly flat
No sign of the supposed post-tariff “price surge.”
And the basic math doesn’t work either. Assume a 10% tariff, imported inputs make up ~20% of domestic production, and half the cost passes through to final prices. That’s 10% × 20% × 50% = 1%. Even doubling assumptions doesn’t get you to 2.6%.
There’s also no real timing correlation. Import prices moved briefly after tariff news, but domestic prices didn’t inflect. Correlation between the two series over that period is roughly 0.15; statistically noise.
The simplest conclusion: tariffs added some friction at the margin, but the claim that they drove a broad inflationary shift just isn’t supported by the numbers.


